Ivan Sichen, an expert of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”, for Gazeta.ua
Liberation of Crimea will be a heavy moral blow to Russia and will block many opportunities for it to wage war. However, Ukraine needs to take several important and difficult steps for this. This was stated by military analyst Ivan Sichen in his comment for Gazeta.ua.
“Ukraine’s regaining control over Crimea will be of extremely important in political, military and economic terms for our state. To begin with, Ukraine will once again prove its ability to liberate its territories from the invaders. At the same time, Putin’s regime will receive a heavy moral blow, which will finally undermine its authority. Russia will lose the opportunity to deploy its troops to the south of Ukraine and use the mobilization potential of the Crimean population. Ukraine will again have access to the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait, which in the future will allow the use of ports in Berdyansk and Mariupol. Previously, they were the main sea ports through which Ukrainian metal was exported”, says Sichen.
At the same time, the liberation of Crimea is a very complicated problem, the analyst explains.
“Firstly, we must stop the Russians’ offensive in the Donbas, exhaust their forces and force them to go on the defensive. As it happened in late summer – early autumn last year. Otherwise, no large-scale counteroffensive of the Defense Forces of Ukraine will be possible. Secondly, it is necessary to interrupt the connection between the Crimean Peninsula and the Krasnodar Territory of the Russian Federation in order to exclude the possibility of Russia’s deploying additional troops (reserves) to the Peninsula. To this end, it is necessary to completely disable the bridge across the Kerch Strait, as was done with the Antonivskyi bridge over the Dnipro River in Kherson. We will be able to resolve this problem only after receiving longer-range missile weapons from the West”, adds Sichen.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine should go directly to the Crimean isthmus, the analyst specifies.
“At the least, this requires the liberation of the left-bank part of Kherson region. And before that — of Melitopol and Berdyansk, in order to ensure the security of the left flank of the strike group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will advance in the direction of Crimea. Fourthly, it is necessary to complete the creation of new units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, armed with Western weapons. Now it’s being done, but it still takes some time”, says Sichen.
Ukraine will be able to resolve all these problems. However, to indicate specific dates when this will be done now is impractical, the analyst believes.
“Although, anything can happen any minute. For example, the emergence of an economic or political crisis in the Russian Federation, as a result of which its troops will lose their combat capability. This is exactly what happened to the former USSR, as a result of which it was forced to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan and from Central and Eastern Europe. Reunification of Germany confirmed this. And then both, the Soviet army and the Soviet Union itself, collapsed”, Sichen emphasizes.
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On April 2, 2023, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksii Danilov unveiled 12 steps for the de-occupation of Crimea, which are being developed with the involvement of a wide range of professionals and experts. The plan includes, in particular, Russian citizens’ leaving the Peninsula immediately, discussion of the draft monument to the “Russian Warship, Go Fuck Yourself”, as well as renaming of Sevastopol, probably to Akhtiar. Ukraine has a chance to liberate the occupied Crimea by the end of summer 2023, provided that the West transfers long-range missiles. This opinion was voiced by the ex-commander of the US troops in Europe, General Ben Hodges. He called the Peninsula a “decisive terrain”. |
Author: Anastasiia Prokaieva
Source: Gazeta.ua
The article is available in Russian
